- Russia is gaining the upper hand in its ongoing war against Ukraine, according to a report.
- The country has support from major allies and a record-breaking defense budget.
- Meanwhile, Ukraine is running low on troops and ammo and is facing in-fighting among commanders.
Russia's allies appear to be doing a better job of supporting it than the West is in backing Ukraine.
A recent report by Norway's Intelligence Service claims that Russia is about to gain the "military upper hand" in its war with Ukraine due to "considerable" support from China, Belarus, Iran, and North Korea.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is seeing crucial support from its allies in the US and Europe fade away as the war enters its third year.
That's had real consequences on the front line. The Ukrainian military is running low on troops and ammo, and top commanders are fighting over strategy, according to reports.
"Russia's position in the war is stronger than it was a year ago, and the country is in the process of seizing the initiative and gaining the upper hand militarily," the Focus 2024 report said.
"The Kremlin is expected to step up its war effort in the months ahead. The prospect of real negotiations is dim, and all signs point to the war continuing throughout 2024."
Nils Andreas Stensones, the head of Norway's military intelligence unit, told reporters that Russia "could mobilize around three times more troops than Ukraine," and that it's able to secure enough munitions, combat vehicles, drones, and missiles to sustain the war effort through the year, The Moscow Times reported.
The intelligence report noted that Russia's $118.5 billion defense budget for 2024 is "unparalleled" compared to budgets of this kind throughout the country's history.
The budget has increased by $48 billion — that's 61 percent — since 2023, and it makes up a third of the government's overall spending, the report said.
A closer relationship with China
China and Russia have deepened their military ties in recent years with the help of arms sales and joint military exercises.
Over the past two years, they have launched joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan, shared military technology and components, and pledged to cooperate on high-tech weapons development.
Although China has refrained from supplying fully assembled weapons and ammunition to Russia, Chinese deliveries of components are crucial to Russia's warfare, the Focus 2024 report said.
"China is supplying machines, vehicles, electronics and parts, and is helping to develop the Russian arms industry," it added. "There is close diplomatic coordination between the two countries both bilaterally and in the UN."
Belarus, Iran, and North Korea
The report noted that Russia is also receiving "large amounts of ammunition and drones from North Korea and Iran."
Russia, for instance, has relied heavily on Iranian-built Shahed-13 drones. Business Insider last month reported that Russia could soon get its hands on a newer version of the drone that would prove even more deadly: a jet engine-powered Shahed-238.
"The cooperation between the two countries has reached unprecedented levels, evident in the use of Iranian drones by Russia in Ukraine," according to a report by the European Council on Foreign Relations. "The two countries have increased their efforts to jointly resist Western sanctions and political isolation"
North Korea, meanwhile, is shaping up to become one of Russia's major arms suppliers. If it keeps up the "recent scale and pace of military-related shipments," the dictatorship would be "on course to become one of Russia's most significant foreign arms suppliers, alongside Iran and Belarus," the UK's Ministry of Defence said in October.
Belarus has also been a key ally to Russian President Vladimir Putin. It has hosted Russian military drills, soldiers, and equipment, and enabled the transportation of Russian weapons close to Ukraine's borders.
The situation is looking bleak for Ukraine
The support from Russia's allies matters, especially when paired with the country's soaring defense budget. Its military appears to have a major edge over Ukraine as the country's financial and military support from its allies is faltering.
Ukraine accumulated $122 billion in aid from its allies since Russia invaded in 2022, Reuters reported in December. But its military requires "extensive Western weapons aid" to even the playing field over Russia, Stensones said.
The country faces uncertainty as its allies in Europe face strained funds, Reuters reported, and the possibility that the US could cease its aid contributions if Trump gets elected in 2024.
Patrick Bury, a military analyst at the University of Bath in the UK, told BI that Putin is "sitting pretty," amid the prospect of Trump winning the upcoming presidential election.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the Senate passed a $95 billion emergency defense-aid bill that could support Ukraine, Israel, and Tawain — but the bill is expected to face stiff opposition by Republicans, BI previously reported.
The country previously said it would struggle to successfully defend itself against Russia without assistance from the US.
"With increased production of arms, improved access to personnel and considerable support from other authoritarian states, Russia is gaining ground on Ukraine." the Focus 2024 report said.
"Ukraine continues to show tremendous fighting spirit, but the country relies on Western support to defend itself and retake the initiative."