If you want to have a nice lobster dinner, you may need to save a few extra bucks, because lobster prices are on the rise.
Reports of fisherman hauling out record amounts of lobster over the past few years make it seem as if lobster should be pretty cheap.
But that's last year. This year the price of lobster is going up thanks to changing water temperatures, experts have told Business Insider.
A lot of the lobsters people buy come from New England — specifically the Gulf of Maine, which produces 94% of America's lobsters. And lobsters for the most part are harvested only after they have grown and shed their shells. But changing ocean temperatures over the past few years have messed with when lobsters molt.
Basically, warmer water makes them molt earlier in the year, and back in 2012 New England's ocean was relatively warm thanks to an "ocean heat wave" that hit much of the East Coast, according to University of Maine research professor Richard Wahle.
This meant lobsters matured earlier in the year, making them ready for the summer fishing season.
Fisherman caught so many lobsters that prices per pound plummeted to the lowest they had been since the 1930s:
But now, three years later, the price is on the rise again because this year's harsh winter around New England dropped ocean temperatures around Maine to the lower end of the lobster comfort zone.
The cold water delays when lobsters molt, so fisherman aren't pulling nearly as many lobsters in their traps as usual.
That creates a nasty case of supply and demand for lobster lovers. Until more lobsters molt, the supply will remain low, but people will still want their lobster bakes and lobster rolls. The price is already $1 to $2 more expensive per pound than last year.
It also looks as if the supply will remain low for the whole year. In a normal year lobsters molt twice, but because of the first molt coming so late, a second molt may not even happen.
"I predict that it will be a one-molt season, based on temperatures," University of Maine professor Bob Steneck says.
This year Steneck thinks the only molt will occur around July or August, leaving too little time for the lobsters to grow enough for a second molt before winter hits and cooler temperatures slow down their growth.
And even if most of the lobster population participates in one big molt, overall landings for the year will probably still end up lower than usual — an odd turn for a haul that has been on the upswing since the early '90s:
This could be the start of a turning point for the American lobster market.
Wahle is finding fewer lobster larva in the ocean, international demand for lobsters is rising, and lobsters are moving north to Canada as water temperatures trend warmer.
Better get to cracking those shells while you can still afford it.
