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5 predictions about the future of work Bill Gates nailed in 2005 — and 2 we wish he had
On May 19, 2005, Microsoft CEO Bill Gates released a company-wide memo simply titled "The New World of Work."
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In it, Gates outlined some of the tectonic shifts people could expect to see in their office spaces over the next 10 years.
Not all of the predictions came true — we don't all use software that recognizes when we're swamped and filters out distractions automatically — but he got a surprising amount right.
"New software will learn from the way you work, understand your needs, and help you set priorities," Gates wrote.
Apps like Workflow and Evernote, and countless others, help increase productivity without requiring any manual programming.
People can tell the app just once to call an Uber or send an email on certain days, and our apps can take care of them indefinitely, freeing us up to get more work done.
Verdict: True.
Most of what we do nowadays is stored online, so it only makes sense for that information to be available how and when we need it.
Apps like Slack and software like Siri integrate with our daily lives almost seamlessly, whether it's by eliminating email or satisfying our curiosity instantaneously.
We can send messages via voice-to-text and handle all forms of incoming messages — calls, emails, texts — all from the same device.
Verdict: True.
We wish there were a way for our email to automatically shut off when we're deep in thought.
Unfortunately, Gates' prediction that "if you're working on a high-priority memo under a tight deadline, for example, software should be able to understand this and only allow phone calls or e-mails from, say, your manager or a family member," hasn't been invented yet.
The closest thing we have are manually controlled distraction blockers, but even those can be taken down in an intense moment of weakness.
Verdict: False.
"Over the next decade, shared workspaces will become far more robust," Gates predicted, "with richer tools to automate workflow and connect all the people."
Shared workspaces are more robust, and people love them. (Open offices, while popular, aren't so beloved.)
As technology migrates jobs to the internet, working remotely is becoming a much more attractive option. People can be with their families, live in farflung cities, and tailor their jobs to how they work best.
(Although, don't expect offices to die anytime soon.)
Verdict: True.
In 2005, Gates believed computers would be so intuitive and enmeshed in our lives that they could predict what we want before we want it.
"A new layer of context-sensitive services will give you flexible and intuitive ways to manage information that go beyond the 'file and folder' metaphor of today," he wrote. "You shouldn't have to 'think like a database' and formulate search queries to ask for the information you need."
Unfortunately, Google and your computer's search function are still necessary to locate documents and cat videos.
Verdict: False.
Electronic documents have largely wiped out the need for reams of paper, just as Bill Gates thought and hoped they would (with certain cases, like healthcare billing, being laggard examples).
He specifically envisioned these innovations for supply chain management within businesses.
"Employees shouldn't have to manually match purchase orders with invoices. They shouldn't need to print and mail bills that could easily be sent in electronic form," he explained.
Verdict: True.
It used to be that if you were busy, you had no way to communicate it to someone other than saying so. But even that was disruptive.
Now, colleagues can know to leave you alone if any of your major chat and communication sources tells them you're not available. This could be an autoreply on email, an Away message on chat, or offline Skype status.
These cues are called "presence information," and in 2005 workplaces were "just beginning to tap the potential of presence information," Gates said.
Today, it's easier than ever to know when someone is free.
Verdict: True
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