- The US looks set to send Ukraine the Army Tactical Missile System, which Kyiv has long sought.
- ATACMS has longer range than Ukraine's other missiles, allowing it to hit valuable Russian targets.
- But using it effectively will require accurate intelligence and precise targeting, experts say.
The US appears set to send Ukraine the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System, a short-range ballistic missile that Kyiv has long sought and Washington has long declined to provide.
The missile, with both unitary and cluster-munition warheads, would allow Ukrainian forces to reach well beyond the range of the Western-made cruise missiles and rocket artillery they already have to strike valuable targets, such as Russian air bases, but hitting them will require timely intelligence and precise targeting, experts say.
After months of declining Ukraine's requests, President Joe Biden reportedly told President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he was willing to send ATACMS, as the missile is known, at a meeting in Washington DC last month. There has not been a formal announcement, but Doug Bush, the US Army's assistant secretary for acquisition, told Bloomberg this week that the missiles to be sent have been identified and that officials were "ready when and if" Biden approves.
US officials have cited concern about depleting the US's own ATACMS stockpile as a reason not to send it to Ukraine, but the decision to provide cluster munitions earlier this year expanded the range of ATACMS warheads that could be provided and is seen as reducing that concern.
Depending on the model, cluster-warhead ATACMS carry 300 to 950 anti-personnel and anti-material bomblets and have a range of roughly 15 miles to 186 miles. ATACMS with unitary warheads have similar ranges, according to the Army's weapons guide. The missiles all have inertial guidance aided by GPS.
The fact that ATACMS can be fired from HIMARS launchers and M270 multiple-launch rocket systems that Ukraine already has means the missiles will complement Ukraine's other strike assets and allow them to be "much more distributed" and "much more resilient and survivable," Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on a September 28 episode of the War on the Rocks podcast.
ATACMS "will definitely put in danger Russian forward helicopter operating bases and those that are known to be operating from cities like Berdyansk," Kofman added. "It can target assembly areas, any significant concentrations of troops, and a host of time-sensitive targets."
Russian attack helicopters, especially the Ka-52 Alligator, have been particularly effective in southern Ukraine, where Kyiv launched a counteroffensive in early June to recapture territory connecting Russian-occupied Crimea to Russian-held areas in eastern Ukraine.
In mid-June, the British Ministry of Defence said Russia had reinforced its attack helicopters in region, citing imagery showing more than 20 helicopters deployed to Berdyansk Airport, some 62 miles from the frontline. The airport has already faced heavy attacks.
In late July, the ministry described the Ka-52 as "one of the single most influential Russian weapon systems" in the region, saying that despite some 40 being lost, Ka-52s had "imposed a heavy cost on Ukraine," especially with anti-tank missiles they can fire from beyond the range of Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles.
Against dispersed targets, whether it be an air-defense battery or helicopters on a tarmac, ATACMS armed with cluster munitions would likely be more effective than other weapons Ukraine has, experts say.
"There's really no other system available that provides that capability of doing precision strikes against area targets," Colby Badhwar, an independent Canadian security analyst, said on a September 28 episode of the Geopolitics Decanted podcast.
"If you wanted to destroy a target that was more distributed, such as a Russian surface-to-air-missile battery, then it's very difficult to destroy the entirety of that battery if you're using missiles that just have a unitary explosive warhead," Badhwar said.
Submunition attacks are often used to spread destruction across airfields, denying fighters and bombers the runways they need to get airborne; by contrast, helicopters need much less space to take off but still rely on facilities needed to refuel and re-arm.
ATACMS fired from HIMARS and M270 launchers that Ukraine has near the frontlines, coupled with the missiles' supersonic speeds, would mean a shorter targeting cycle than with cruise missiles, which are launched from fighter jets that are generally based in western Ukraine.
"Assuming that you do have a target acquired and you know what the coordinates are, ATACMS is much more responsive to a target that might be time-sensitive and you need to hit it as soon as possible," Badhwar said.
Target acquisition is no simple task, however. An inefficient targeting cycle is a major Russian military weakness, and finding and hitting targets dozens of miles from the frontline would likely be difficult for Ukraine.
"In order to engage time-sensitive targets, you need to actually have the [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] and the targeting to be able to find and fix these targets," Kofman said, adding that doing so beyond ranges of 18 to 25 miles "is very difficult for Ukrainian forces now."
The US, which has monitored the battlefield closely since Russia attacked last year, may well assist with targeting, but that would likely create "a very tight sort of decision-making cycle — of getting that information, relaying to Ukraine forces, and then making a decision to employ these assets," Kofman said.
If Kyiv receives a limited number of ATACMS, senior officials may retain authority over their employment, adding more "turnkeys" that could slow the process and restrict how they are used, Kofman said.
Russia's military also has a say in ATACMS' effectiveness. It took heavy losses when Ukraine introduced HIMARS and began hitting more distant targets, but it adapted to that and has shown signs of adapting to the cruise missiles Ukraine has started using.
Russian commanders may adapt to ATACMS and may do so sooner if their intelligence assets spot the missiles before they are used; ATACMS is also vulnerable to Russian air defenses, though it likely has an edge, Badhwar said.
While ATACMS is unlikely to be game-changer, both analysts said it would be very valuable and that its ultimate impact hinges on how Ukraine employs it.
"That depends on the ability to find and fix targets at that range," Kofman said. "That depends on those targets actually being available, on close coordination with other folks that can help enable targeting, and of course on numbers of systems provided."
