- Economic prosperity in the US is shifting to the Mountain West and coastal Southeast.
- Utah and Idaho have seen big increases in the share of residents living in prosperous ZIP codes.
- Meanwhile, the share of residents in distressed ZIP codes is increasing in areas like New York City.
For Americans who want economic prosperity, the move might be to head West.
An analysis from the Economic Innovation Group published on March 27 finds that, when it comes to economic prosperity, the Mountain West and coastal Southeast are doing particularly well — and that can be chalked up to, in part, how the pandemic reshaped the American economy.
Idaho, Montana, Utah, Nevada, and Georgia have seen the largest increases in the share of residents living in prosperous zip codes since the early 2010s," report authors Daniel Newman and Kenan Fikri wrote.
EIG uses what it calls its "distressed communities index," which looks at factors like how jobs have grown (or decreased) over five years, how much of the population is below the poverty line, how much vacant housing there is, and how many adults aren't working to gauge an area's economic well-being. The highest classification under the DCI scoring is "prosperous," which represents the top quintile of well-being.
Broadly, the average ZIP code distress score went down in the Mountain, South Atlantic, and East South Central Census regions, when looking at the 2017 to 2021 period compared to 2011 to 2015. Meanwhile, regions like New England and the Middle Atlantic saw their distress scores rise.
Things are particularly booming in states like Utah and Idaho. In Utah, the share of residents in prosperous ZIP codes during the 2017 through 2021 period grew to 55% from 47% in the 2011 to 2015 period.
Utah is one area that saw a huge pandemic-era boom, thanks to remote workers flocking to cities like Ogden and homes selling quickly. Utah also saw its economy quickly rebound from the impacts of the pandemic, although, as BI previously reported, that might be partially chalked up to reopening earlier and with looser restrictions than other harder-hit northeastern states.
On the whole, red states were the fastest to bounce back from the pandemic's economic impact; as Politico reported, Utah did not enact a stay-at-home order and is home to industries like food processing, which were classed as essential.
Idaho saw a similar recovery and an even larger boost in its economic well-being, according to the EIG. During the 2017 to 2021 period, the share of residents in a prosperous ZIP code jumped to 39% from 19% during the 2011 to 2015 window. Idaho similarly had a concentration of essential industries and saw a swift employment recovery.
At the same time, the situation is reversed in the deep south. Mississippi has the largest share of residents in a distressed ZIP code, while the share in Louisiana rose by 10 percentage points.
And in New York, the share of residents in a distressed ZIP code jumped to 20% from 12%.
"Nearly all of that increase is attributable to zip codes in metropolitan areas like New York City, which particularly struggled in the pandemic," the analysis found.
New York City has already seen its own economic shifts in the wake of the pandemic. Today, millionaires are flocking back to the city and New Yorkers earning under $172,000 departing, likely due in part to an untenable cost of living.
That all comes as the US economy seems to shift more West and South. And for those who want to make the move to where things are booming now, there might be some good news: Home prices in major Utah and Idaho cities are falling a bit, potentially leading to even more of a prosperity boom.
Did you move to a more prosperous area, or leave a place like New York behind? Contact this reporter at jkaplan@businessinsider.com.
